THE PRIMARY VS. GENERAL FALLACY

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The Clinton campaign put out a memo today asserting that “if Barack Obama can’t win [in Pennsylvania], how will he win the general election?”

The memo continues, ”Pennsylvania is of particular importance, along with Ohio, Florida and Michigan, because it is dominated by the swing voters who are critical to a Democratic victory in November. No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania since 1948. And no candidate has won the Democratic nomination without winning Pennsylvania since 1972.”

But, as one of us writes, there is a fallacy to this kind of argument that hasn’t received much attention: “Recent history shows that winning a state in the primary season -- no matter its importance on the map -- doesn’t guarantee success in the general election.

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